Semiconductor Market

Semiconductor Market to Grow 20.2% in 2024 to $633 Billion according to IDC

Worldwide Semiconductor Market Outlook Upgraded

Semiconductor manufacturing business

 

 

The global provider of market intelligence IDC (International Data Corporation) has upgraded its Semiconductor Market Outlook by calling a bottom and return to growth that accelerates this year. IDC raised its 2023 revenue outlook from $518.8 billion to $526.5 billion in a new forecast.

Revenue expectations for 2024 were also raised from $625.9 billion to $632.8 billion as IDC believes the U.S. market will remain resilient from a demand standpoint and China will begin recovering by the second half of 2024 (2H24).

Two  largest market segments

IDC sees better semiconductor growth visibility as the long inventory correction subsides in two of the largest market segments:
• PCs
• Smartphones

Automotive and Industrials elevated inventory levels are expected to return to normal levels in 2024 as electrification continues to drive semiconductor content over the next decade.

Technology and large flagship product introductions will drive more semiconductor content and value across market segments in 2024 through 2026, including the introduction of AI PCs and AI Smartphones next year and a much-needed improvement in memory ASPs and DRAM bit volume.

CapEx

Wafer capacity pricing will remain flat next year as foundry suppliers gradually improve utilization rates and demand returns from their core fabless customers. CapEx is expected to improve by 2H24 as revenue shipments match end demand and regional ChipAct incentives stimulate investment across the supply chain.

Semiconductor Revenue
Worldwide semiconductor revenue will grow to $526.5 billion in 2023, down 12.0% from $598 billion in 2022. For 2024, IDC sees year-over-year growth of 20.2% to $633 billion, up from $626 billion in the prior forecast.

Due to increased inventory rationalization, visibility in the channel, and increasing demand pull from AI server and end point device manufacturers, IDC has upgraded its Semiconductor Market Outlook to sustainable GROWTH from TROUGH and called the bottom of the correction.

We upgraded our Market Outlook to GROWTH as the semiconductor market returns to sustained growth,” said Rudy Torrijos, research manager, Worldwide Semiconductor Supply Chain Technology Intelligence at IDC. “While inventory levels remain elevated with suppliers, visibility has clearly improved in the channel and with OEMs in key market segments. We see revenue growth matching end user demand beginning in 1024. As a result, we expect capex to improve subsequently initiating a new investment cycle within the supply chain.”

The IDC Worldwide Semiconductor Technology Supply Chain Intelligence (STSI) serves as the basis for IDC’s semiconductor supply-side research, including market forecasts, vendor market shares, and custom market models. This service contains segmented revenue data collected from over 150 of the top global private and public semiconductor companies. Revenue for over twenty semiconductor device areas, five geographic regions, seven industry segments, and more than 70 end-device applications are included in our forecast data.

About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.